Highlights industry needs to further develop before strengthening VAP capabilities
NEWS SUMMARY
1. PNIA urges reconsideration of ore export ban, stressing that the Philippines must first create a
competitive environment to attract investments in value-added processing (VAP) before implementing
restrictive policies.
2. Implementing a ban on ore exports will further add to uncertainty from potential investors, along with
ease of doing business, long permitting processes, and harmonization of national and local policies.
3. Calls for swift action to seize global nickel opportunities, highlighting that the country risks falling behind
as competitors like Indonesia, Brazil, and Australia ramp up production and attract foreign investments.
4. Warns of geopolitical and market risks, cautioning that an export ban could drive buyers to alternative
suppliers and undermine the Philippines’ competitiveness amid evolving trade policies and shifting
demand for nickel.
The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA), the country’s largest group of nickel mining
companies, has voiced strong concerns regarding the renewed suggestion to impose an ore
export ban as part of the mining fiscal regime reforms, highlighting that such a policy may not
address the real challenges faced by the industry in developing value-added processing
(VAP) in the Philippines. “We support the aspirations of the government for a more developed
nickel industry, however it is our position that an export ban is not a timely policy at the
moment,” said Atty. Dante R. Bravo, PNIA president, urging that the focus be on creating the
right environment to attract the right investments and enable VAP development.
“A proposal like the ore export ban is appealing, however if implemented at this time, it
overlooks the regulatory and business challenges that make value-added processing in the
Philippines difficult to implement,” Atty. Bravo noted.
The proposal aims to encourage VAP by banning the export of raw nickel ores, but the
difficulties in establishing and sustaining VAP facilities in the Philippines have to be
addressed. “Without holistic government support, addressing inconsistent policies, and
regulatory burdens, forcing value-added processing will lead to mine closures and job
losses,” said Atty. Bravo. “The government needs to create a more conducive business
environment before pushing for policies that might disrupt the industry’s progress.”
The Need to Scale Up Quickly to Capture Opportunities from Nickel
Looking at Indonesia, which implemented an ore export ban, they prepared a conducive
investment climate for value-added processing. Indonesia enjoys several advantages that
the Philippines lacks, including policy implementation, infrastructure, and strong government
support. Besides these advantages, the ore ban was only implemented after the country had
secured a substantial number of investors committed to its mining industry growth. “Indonesia
has been able to attract foreign investments, build infrastructure, and offer very attractive
fiscal incentives that have allowed it to quickly scale up processing capacity driven by strong
government support.” said Atty. Bravo. “From our experience, the Philippines lacks the same
environment for investors, for instance, it takes over ten (10) years just to approve mining
permits, which could force investors to look for a more attractive regulatory environment in
other countries where they can get attractive return on investments.”
Atty. Bravo continued, “Value-added processing requires more than just government support
and building facilities; first and foremost, we need to conduct a strategic and in-depth
mapping of resources to identify quality of nickel and quantity of nickel as not all ore is good
for value-added processing, additionally, we have to begin upskilling our mining engineers to
prepare them for processing activities. Without addressing these key issues, imposing an ore
export ban at this time would slow progress and risk industry failure.”
Geopolitical and Market Shifts
The proposed ore export ban becomes increasingly complex when considering shifting
geopolitical dynamics and ongoing trade tensions. “The growing uncertainty in global trade,
particularly regarding potential trade tariffs, places the competitiveness of Philippine nickel
exports at risk,” said Atty. Bravo. “It’s important that we maintain the competitiveness of the
industry, particularly as geopolitical factors continue to evolve.” This highlights the need for a
carefully considered approach to ensure the future of the mining sector.
Moreover, Atty. Bravo pointed out that countries like New Caledonia, Brazil, and Australia are
increasing their nickel production, presenting additional competitive challenges. “If the
Philippines were to implement an ore export ban, countries like China may turn to other nickel
suppliers,” Atty. Bravo explained. “As these markets grow more competitive, we could lose
valuable buyers and miss out on key export opportunities.”
Atty. Bravo also emphasized that the timing of the ore export ban should be carefully
reconsidered, particularly as global nickel demand continues to evolve rapidly. “With rapid
development in battery technologies, shifts in China’s stainless steel production, and other
changes in the global supply chain, now is not the right moment for an ore export ban,” he
said. “This policy may undermine our competitiveness and fail to adequately account for the
fast-moving dynamics of supply and demand. Instead of imposing restrictions prematurely,
the focus should be on strengthening the country’s investment climate to ensure the long-
term sustainability of the sector.”
PNIA’s Call for a Competitive Business Environment
Building on this, the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) reaffirmed its full support
for the government’s commitment to strengthening the mining sector and positioning the
Philippines as a key player in the global supply chain. However, PNIA urges a strategic
approach to policymaking—one that prioritizes creating a competitive business environment
before implementing restrictive measures like an ore export ban. By addressing key industry
challenges first—such as energy costs, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory inefficiencies—
the Philippines can attract the right investments, foster value-added processing, and secure
sustainable growth for both the sector and the broader economy.
Industry Outlook for 2025
PNIA’s outlook for 2025 reflects a complex global nickel market. Data from PNIA Market
Analysts estimate that global nickel production is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, while
consumption is expected to rise by 5% to 3.514 million tons, driven primarily by demand in
stainless steel and renewable energy. “While global demand remains strong, the oversupply
from Indonesia and shifts in technology will continue to put downward pressure on prices,”
said Atty. Bravo.
Nickel prices, recently hitting a four-year low, are forecast to average $16,750 per ton in 2025,
with potential spikes to $20,000 early in the year. “Price fluctuations due to oversupply from
Indonesia and changing demand patterns, such as the growing preference for lower-nickel
batteries, will impact market stability,” said Bravo.
Despite the challenges, the Philippines remains a key player in the global nickel supply. The
Department of Trade and Industry reports foreign investments in the mining and quarrying
industry at PHP 79.19 billion between July 2022 and December 2024, with key investments
from China, Australia, and Japan.
PNIA continues to work with government partners to help the mining sector grow sustainably.
Atty. Bravo concluded, “We must work with the government to create policies that encourage
investment in both mining and value-added processing, ensuring that the benefits of the
nickel industry are fully realized for all stakeholders.”