originally published in The Manila Standard
The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA), the country’s largest group of nickel mining companies, expressed concern on Tuesday over the renewed suggestion to impose an ore export ban as part of reforms to the mining fiscal regime.
“Now is not the right time for an ore export ban. This policy could undermine our competitiveness and fail to account for the fast-moving dynamics of global supply and demand. Instead of imposing restrictions prematurely, the focus should be on strengthening the country’s investment climate to ensure the long-term sustainability of the sector,” said PNIA president Dante Bravo in a briefing Tuesday.
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The proposal to ban the export of raw nickel ores aims to encourage value-added processing, but the PNIA said the challenges of establishing and maintaining value facilities in the Philippines should be addressed first.
The group said the proposal becomes more complex when considering shifting geopolitical dynamics and ongoing trade tensions.
“The growing uncertainty in global trade, particularly with the risk of trade tariffs, threatens the competitiveness of Philippine nickel exports. It’s crucial that we maintain our edge in the market, especially as geopolitical factors continue to evolve,” Bravo said.
PNIA said countries like New Caledonia, Brazil and Australia are ramping up their nickel production, adding to the competitive pressures.
“If the Philippines were to implement an ore export ban, countries like China may turn to other nickel suppliers. As these markets become more competitive, we risk losing valuable buyers and missing key export opportunities,” Bravo said.
He said the timing of the ore export ban should be reconsidered, particularly as global demand for nickel continues to surge due to advances in electric battery manufacturing.
Despite these concerns, the PNIA reiterated its full support for the government’s efforts to strengthen the mining sector and establish the Philippines as a key player in the global supply chain as it urged for a more strategic approach to policymaking—one that prioritizes creating a competitive business environment before implementing restrictive measures like an ore export ban.
“A proposal such as the ore export ban may seem appealing, but if implemented now, it fails to consider the regulatory and business challenges that make value-added processing in the Philippines difficult to achieve,” Bravo said.
According to market analysts from the PNIA, global nickel production is projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2025, while consumption is expected to rise 5 percent to 3.514 million tons, driven primarily by demand from stainless steel production and renewable energy industries.
“While global demand remains strong, the oversupply from Indonesia and technological shifts will continue to exert downward pressure on prices,” Bravo said.
Nickel prices, which recently hit a four-year low, are forecast to average $16,750 per ton in 2025, with potential spikes to $20,000 early in the year.